US Penal Tariff Refund - Court Ruled "Yes to Refund"

US courts (basis Supreme Court ruling quashing penal tariffs) has ruled that customs should refund all the penal tariffs collected to the importers.  This will be a biggest refund in history amounting to approximately $175 billion.  Efforts of US Government to slow down the refund ruling did not succeed.  Now the authorities should find out a way on how to refund the penal tariffs collected.  Yes there will be an appeal but I do not think it will take much time, sooner the refunds have to happen.

Exporters from India should contact their buyers and negotiate on refund of discounts which they offered in lieu of these penal tariffs.  I know it is not an easy task but we should set the ball rolling. 

Dollar Appreciating!

USD appreciated sharply against Euro by 1% in 2 days (its best in last seven months) signaling strengthening of USD in context of the recent geo-political situation   

Many things favoured this appreciation of USD of which three are more pertinent - 

• one reversal of penal tariffs by Supreme Courts of US which lead to some stability in trade
• second return of safe haven status to USD aftermath of recent geo-political stress especially conflict in Iran and 
• third with oil prices shooting up due to conflict, US will be mainly insulated as they have local supplies of oil but Euro zone will have to bear the brunt of price increases which means inflation and depreciation of their currency leading to strengthening of USD.

Question : Is this appreciation of USD sustainable, to me it seems to be yes considering the tensions and oil price jumps anticipated.  But let us keep our fingers crossed and wait

  

RoDTEP - Slashed 50% - Indian bureaucracy never fail to "Surprise"

DGFT circular dated 23rd February 2026 surprised exporters as it in one stroke reduced RoDTEP benefit by 50%.  This came as a surprise as there was no pre-warning this will happen.  An immediate clarification was issued by Government that this will not impact agriculture exports and processed foods export (I am sure some more clarifications will come in soon)

India is a land of surprises when it comes to taxation and policy matters (Trumpism always!).  Exporters have factored this incentive when pricing for their exports now all of a sudden they are left dry either taking a hit on margins or re-negotiate prices with buyers both of which will have an impact on trade.  

As such trade and industry face too many variables from a demand, supply, logistics, competition, geo-political perspective.  With this add on instability on taxes there is a big challenge.

Please please bring in stability in taxation and policy matters or atleast have a discussion before implementing policy matters, industry & trade is handled by mature & well informed persons who will provide rationale solutions to the bureaucracy.  Please listen also.  

US Tariff - Refunds & Exporter Pricing

With US Supreme court striking down the penalty tariffs levied using International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 the tax collected using these tariffs over the past 6 months which total approximately $133.5B+ is now legally void.

Companies (Importers in USA) should apply for refund of these penalty tariffs which is not easy as there will still be new court cases, interpretations and multiple regulations.  Timeline may be some months/years.

Question is will the exporters who reduced prices in lieu of tariffs will get some portion of this refund from their customers to compensate for their sacrifice?  A big question - need to wait and watch.  Exporters please watch out and try to re-coup some of your sacrifices 

No Tariff Advantage - India exports to US

Penalty Tariff Goes

With the US Supreme court overturning tariffs imposed using authority under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 the penalty tariffs imposed on all countries using IEEPA stand cancelled immediately.   Which means the 18% reduced penalty tariff for India also stands cancelled.  

New Temporary Tariff comes  

Immediately after the Supreme court order Trump introduced a 10% tariff on all countries under Section 122 of the Trade Act 1974, which lets the president levy temporary import surcharges (max for 150 days), which means this additional 10% tariff has a short shelf life of maximum 5 months, by which time Trump has to decide on how they will charge additional tariffs to some countries

What it means for India

With immediate effect India's product will have 10% tariff, will it be an advantage to India - Answer is NO.  All countries across the world will have additional 10% tariff meaning there is no advantage for India at this moment.  So why US India trade agreement?  The US India trade agreement will help India to limit additional tariffs to maximum 18% when Trump administration moves with new laws to increase tariffs for all countries.  For example some countries will have 25% tariff whereas India will be restricted to 18% or lower.  

In short advantage of tariff is removed at this moment for India, may come back later depending on what tariffs are imposed on other countries

"To" or "Not To"

Rally in Gold, Silver, Copper is staggering especially in the past 1 year considering the uncertainties in world politics & economics.  

Question raised by many : Will this rally continue and will there be staggering returns. 

Answer : With political / economical situation not clear and there are multiple challenges existing uncertainty looms large which means rally in Gold, Silver, Copper may continue into 2026 unless stability kicks in.  

Question : Will this rally be similar to what is being seen in the past 1 year

Answer : I have my doubts on the same as valuations have hit a peak and hence, returns may subdue in 2026 

Question : Should we invest in Gold, Silver, Copper

Answer : 20% of portfolio is always advisable to be in these commodities which provides good balance to one's portfolio.  Over leverage will always have consequences which will be difficult to take when it happens

Rise Again!

Last 19 years built brick by brick brand took a beating in the past few days due to serious lapse on compliance.  A brand which started small with support from investors and dedicated team members made it really big in Indian corporate scene.  In recent times, when seeing the departure screen in airports painted only with Indigo blue fascinated me as to how a brand became so dominant in a short period of time leaving competition way behind.  

Aviation is not an easy industry to be in, it is capital intensive, labour intensive, technology intensive, cost intensive and to top it all customer super sensitive.  In my experience, in a corporate world managing human resources is the most challenging part considering the fact that every single human resource is different plus the fact (we like it or not) human resources tend to have a bias to "herd mentality" for example if one passenger for whatever reason gets upset and starts to show it off at the airport counter or departure counter quickly a group is formed (impromptu) to endorse this view point and join the show off.  

Indigo succeeded and made it big (with profits) in an industry where many players went bankrupt quickly not able to survive the harsh realities of this industry.  When success keeps going well someone took the eye off the compliance ball which hit the entity on its head knocking it down needing urgent medical attention.  At this point of knock down questions are raised and deeply analysed about the way Indigo goes on with its business with everyone giving their point of view - fair enough this is good as always having a reality check opens up new thinking which is good to bring about a change (even a paradigm shift).  

I sincerely hope this knock down is temporary for Indigo since as a brand they made all the right moves and went to top purely on their merits in a reasonably short time 

Giving birth is ecstasy, making right decisions and actions to reach the pinnacle is pure joy, keep the top position for a longer period is a sense of achievement, getting into small turbulences is painful, rising back again is double ecstasy!

I hope Indigo gets to this double ecstasy mode soon.  Wishing you all success Indigo, keep flying high on your own merits.