Up, Up & Up

 Exchange rate of INR is depreciating consistently against USD & Euro

                                      

Why is this happening? 

• Deliberate strategy to insulate exporters on high US tariffs
• Deliberate strategy to insulate exporters on high price increases due to Iran war
• Deliberate strategy to support local manufacturing by making imports expensive
• Oil prices refusing to ease out which means more forex required to buy oil
• Foreign investors have withdrawn more than USD 20 billion from Indian equities in the first four months of 2026, surpassing the record annual outflow seen in the whole of last year, due to uncertainties in growth & global policy changes especially of US
• Interest rates are dropping for the past one year despite price increases (see below chart), expectations of interest rate increases are high, meaning higher inflation

Outlook looks quite challenging with inflation looking imminent to go up, interest rates will go up which means there will be further depreciation of rupee.  100 to USD?

"Algebra" in Business - The new world order now

I am not a mathematics buff, however had to manage it upto high school as it was a compulsory subject.  In Algebra upto grade 7, I was managing to find value for one variable (x), then it became two variables (x,y) in grade 9 by the time I reached grade 12 it became 3 variables (x,y,z) - I STOPPED with Algebra, it was getting too complicated for me as in University I have to work with more and more variables I better thought it is for more mathematical minds than me so I moved into accounting and business where "finding the unknown" was a bit less.  This was way back in the 90s.

Scene change to 2026, I am forced to do what I did not want to in 90s, work with and find value for "n" number of variables in business.  The Iran / Israel / US war with its typical back forth tweets (Truth Social), statements, Hormuz opening / closing, stand off has ensured prices of all raw materials into a huge variable mode.  Material prices change by minute nowadays that too without a top and bottom.  Business has been left with no clue on what to do, whatever we do is not right now, could have been better 

• increase prices by 30% - not right, could have been better
• do not increase price - not right, could have been better 
• increase price by 200% - not right, could have been better
• buy raw materials and store it to avoid price increase - not right, could have been better
• panic buying - not right, could have been better
• do not buy - not right, could have been better 
• do nothing - not right, could have been better 

 Now I kick myself why I did not study Algebra in University!!  I could have been better prepared.