Rise Again!

Last 19 years built brick by brick brand took a beating in the past few days due to serious lapse on compliance.  A brand which started small with support from investors and dedicated team members made it really big in Indian corporate scene.  In recent times, when seeing the departure screen in airports painted only with Indigo blue fascinated me as to how a brand became so dominant in a short period of time leaving competition way behind.  

Aviation is not an easy industry to be in, it is capital intensive, labour intensive, technology intensive, cost intensive and to top it all customer super sensitive.  In my experience, in a corporate world managing human resources is the most challenging part considering the fact that every single human resource is different plus the fact (we like it or not) human resources tend to have a bias to "herd mentality" for example if one passenger for whatever reason gets upset and starts to show it off at the airport counter or departure counter quickly a group is formed (impromptu) to endorse this view point and join the show off.  

Indigo succeeded and made it big (with profits) in an industry where many players went bankrupt quickly not able to survive the harsh realities of this industry.  When success keeps going well someone took the eye off the compliance ball which hit the entity on its head knocking it down needing urgent medical attention.  At this point of knock down questions are raised and deeply analysed about the way Indigo goes on with its business with everyone giving their point of view - fair enough this is good as always having a reality check opens up new thinking which is good to bring about a change (even a paradigm shift).  

I sincerely hope this knock down is temporary for Indigo since as a brand they made all the right moves and went to top purely on their merits in a reasonably short time 

Giving birth is ecstasy, making right decisions and actions to reach the pinnacle is pure joy, keep the top position for a longer period is a sense of achievement, getting into small turbulences is painful, rising back again is double ecstasy!

I hope Indigo gets to this double ecstasy mode soon.  Wishing you all success Indigo, keep flying high on your own merits.       

Compliance taken lightly

My first choice when I need to fly will now become one of the choice when I fly in future.  A reputation built over years of hard work has taken a jolt which will need another good amount of time to re-build - hope this happens soon.  

To me it seems to be a "simple" miss on Indigo side which proved too costly, they did not take the new rules notified by Government on Flight Duty Time Limitations or FDTL seriously and did not work to comply by it 100%.  Maybe they were expecting it to be relaxed or extended for further period of time, it was not to be and all chaos followed.  The below is the cost of this "miss/lapse" till now only on refunds (other losses not withstanding) 

A total of 586,705 PNRs (for period between 01 to 07 December, 2025 were cancelled and refunded, amounting to total of Rs 569.65 crores. A total of 9,55,591 PNRs (for period between 21 November to 07 December, 2025 (2359hrs)) were cancelled and refunded, amounting to total of Rs 827 crores. 4500 bags were delivered to customers out of a total of 9000 bags. Target to deliver balance bags in the next 36 hours. Today, IndiGo plans to operate 1802 flights to 137 out of 138 destinations, with 500 cancellations: Source : Ministry of civil aviation

 Lessons Learnt : 

• Compliance to rule of law is paramount 
• Being big does not mean immunity to changes in compliance
• Management to take change in laws seriously and work on it immediately 
• Cost is paramount, we need to keep it minimal.  But we need to understand "Compliance comes with a Cost" - we need to accept this.  We can optimise cost but cannot avoid/reduce it at cost of compliance

US$ feel good @ 90!!

US$ marching towards 90 to INR is providing good comfort to exporters as they try to re-coupe some of their losses due to tariff imposed.  To me this seems to be a deliberate attempt by the Government and RBI to provide impetus to exports.  

                                                            USD vs INR

                                                                    Euro vs INR

The next big question will be what will happen to inflation if currency depreciates.  This question is answered / offset by drop in oil prices & commodity prices.  Inflation is on an all time low in India thanks to drop in oil & food prices and reforms in GST 

Smart "netting" move by the Government & RBI -> Netting of currency depreciation with fiscal / monetary measures is a way of informing the world that India is a mature economy which is resilient to external shocks and pressures.  Growing internal demand coupled with internal capital mobilisation is further helping India to be immune to external pressures.  Let us keep this going folks.  

This week in stock market

 During the week sensex rose by 1.73% 

The weekend surge happened mainly due to data released on 10th November by USA on consumer price index (CPI) which was lower than expected at 7.7% in October compared to 8.2% in September.  Indian market surge followed the surge in stocks in US.  Another favourable point for the sensex is that INR strengthened against USD and now is trading @ 80.73 compared to one day earlier close of 81.68.   With core inflation moving down in USA interest rate hikes in USA will be moderated, this will lead to more FII investments moving to India which in turn will make the stock market bullish.   On domestic front all industries are expected to do will this quarter and results are expected to be good.  This is good news for the markets.

My take : Market will be bullish for the reminder of 2022.  It is good to invest in the markets in small volumes over a period of time in quality stocks & mutual funds.  There will be fluctuations in the market on certain days but overall market will provide good returns in the short to medium term.

This week in stock market

 Stock Market index moved up 2% this week indicating some turnaround for stocks,

This was primarily due to softening of oil prices to $ 106 levels.  Concerns still remain on inflation and increase in US Interest rates.

Coming week in stock markets will be quite volatile and we can expect a lower finish of sensex in next week

Flight of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI)

Till todate, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) have pulled out Rs.212,966 crores from stock markets in 2022

                                                                                         Source : SEBI / NSDL

This pull off by FPI is one of the major reason for fall in stock market by 14% in 2022

                                                   

                                                                                         Movement of stock market in 2022

What has triggered this pull off by FPI from Indian stock markets?  

• Inflation in USA and subsequent interest rate hikes (total 1.5% in 2022), triggered flight of capital from emerging markets to USA.  This resulted in FPIs pulling out funds from India to USA
• Anticipation of further rate increases by USA also made FPI pull out money from India.  
• Depreciation of Rupee by 5% in 2022 is triggering FPI outflow as they find it more attractive to invest in USD than in INR

Will stock market continue to decrease?

Markets will be volatile in the short term considering the economic situation currently.  It is best to stay invested and continue with Systematic Investments to reap long term benefits as markets will re-bound once economy recovers (time frame 1 to 2 years).

5% drop in Rupee in 2022

Rupee has dropped 5% in 2022 in comparison to US Dollar.  USD vs INR was trading at 74.57 on 1st January and now it is at all time record high of 78.19.  

                        

Major factors responsible for this significant depreciation of Indian Rupee are as below

• High Inflation in USA (8.6% as on May 2022) and consequent three times interest rate increases (0.25% in March, 0.50% in May & 0.75% in June) by US Federal Reserve has moved funds from emerging economies like India to US thereby depreciating the Rupee.  The high point here is further rate increase is anticipated from US Federal Reserve so Rupee will continue to be under pressure in the near future.
• Oil the largest item to be imported into India is having a bull run due to multiple factors including Ukraine war.  Oil is up by 26% in 2022 currently trading at levels of $ 106 compared to $ 77 at the beginning of 2022.  As per data from Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) India imported oil worth of $ 120.4 Billion in 2021-22 which was 25% of all imports by India.  With increased costs in 2022 it is estimated that imports for the month of April 2022 will be a whopping $ 16.2 Billion.  The key point to note here is cost per MMT of oil was $ 316 in 2020-21, $ 568 in 2021-22 & $ 775 in 2022-23.  This effectively means price increase between 2021-22 & 2022-23 is around 36%. This increase in import costs of oil is exerting pressure on Rupee as there is high demand for USD and USD is strengthening 

 

• Foreign exchange reserves are currently at $ 596 Billion compared to  $ 635 Billion in September 2021 signalling a drop of 10% in 8 months.  This depreciation in reserves is mainly attributed to Reserve Bank of India intervening in the Rupee market and selling Dollars to curtail depreciation in Rupee.  This though to a certain extend holds Rupee depreciation brings in uncertainty in minds of investors and impacting the Rupee  

Impact of this Rupee Deprecation

Depreciation of the Rupee is good for export oriented sectors especially Information Technology, Pharmaceuticals & Organic Chemicals.  However it impacts in a significant way imports and thereby cost of products in India.  With India already facing a high inflation of 7% Rupee depreciation will fuel it further and make it move upwards which will be a big challenge, already RBI has increased interest rates by 0.9% in 2022 to 4.9% to combat inflation.  Rupee depreciation will also bring more strain to the balance of trade position which already is in negative (imports more than exports) territory for long time now.  Forex reserves will continue to be under pressure.  

Overall it will be a challenging situation for India to keep Rupee under wraps and not allowing it to depreciate significantly.  With the current situation prevailing my estimate for the rupee will be 79 to 81 by end of this year.