INR, EURO, USD performance in 2018

The below is the movement of INR, US Dollar & Euro in 2018


INR depreciated 9% in 2018 against US Dollar

INR depreciated 4% in 2018 against Euro

Euro appreciated 4% in 2018 against USD

Projected  Movement of Rupee in 2019


The below factors will weigh on the Rupee in 2019

• Growth fundamentals of India economy - GDP growth is projected to be positive @ 7.3%.  Inflation will be low.  Industrial & Agricultural growth will be moderate.  This will have a appreciating impact on Rupee
• Political stability - In the general election of 2019 if there is a stable government -  It will have a appreciating impact on Rupee.  If there is a hung parliament It will have a depreciating impact on Rupee
• Fed reserve planned rate hikes in 2019.  It will have a depreciating impact on Rupee
• Oil is not projected to be very volatile and will be more stable.  It will have a appreciating impact on Rupee. 

My Projection : Overall Rupee will be less volatile in 2019 and should move in the range between 68 to 72 for the full year of 2019

Projected Movement of USD in 2019


The below factors will weigh on the USD in 2019

• 2019 will witness, moderating growth, monetary tightening & tightening credit It will have a depreciating impact on USD 
• Inflation will be steady around 2% in 2019.  It will have a appreciating impact on USD
• Fed Reserve projects more price hike in 2019 - atleast two.  It will have a appreciating impact on USD
• US Dollar is on a "safe haven" demand due to tariff wars especially with China, increase in rates & Brexit uncertainty.  It will have a appreciating impact on USD

My Projection : With economic conditions weighing heavily overall USD will depreciate in 2019 and should move in the range between 1.14 to 1.1885  to the Euro for the full year of 2019